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Market Brief

Risk appetite was mixed in the Asian session as Tokyo returns from the Golden Week holiday, but trading lacked conviction. USD was marginally stronger after a somewhat disappointing NFP read on Friday and shift in Fed Fund futures that suggest a close to zero probability of a June rate hike. The recovery in USD could reflect that IMM data, which indicated that USD speculative shorts were at their the highest since February 2013. USDJPY rallied continuing to reach 107.69, while EURUSD traded in a tight 30 pip range between 1.1380 and 1.1413. The weaker JPY supported demand in Nikkei which rose 0.80%. The rest of Asia was mixed as the Hang Seng rose 0.41% and the Shanghai composite fell -2.45%. Commodities prices were slightly higher, supported by crude oil which rose 2% to $45.95 as wildfires in Canada threaten supply. In the Philippines, presidential elections will be held today. The front runner Rodrigo Duterte’s (provocative mayor of Davao City) populist approach to financial markets has unnerved bond investors and the election could worsen market sentiment. In Australia, April job ads data was weak printing at -0.8% m/m newspapers -6.2% and internet -0.7%, providing further indication of cooling of labor markets. On the political front, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull dissolved both houses of parliament and confirmed a double dissolution election to be held on July 2. The political uncertainty generated from this move, combined with clear evidence of economic weakness and complex issues such as immigration should add additional selling pressure on AUD.

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