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Market Brief
The SNB
introduced negative interest rate (-0.25%) on sight deposits at European open
today amid persisting pressure on EUR/CHF’ 1.20 floor, said ready to take more
measures if needed. EUR/CHF spiked to 1.20974 post-announcement. We believe
that the policy action will temporary ease the selling pressures on EUR/CHF,
however more steps will certainly be needed to defend the floor if the ECB
moves toward a full-blown QE by the first quarter of 2015. USD/CHF hit fresh
year high of 0.9848. The MACD should step in the bullish zone for a daily close
above 0.9810, suggest extension of October-December bull-trend.
The FOMC dropped
the “considerable time” rhetoric as mostly expected, yet maintained its
cautious stance regarding the timing of the first FF rate hike. FOMC Chair
Yellen said “the committee considers it unlikely to begin the normalization
process for at least the next couple of meetings”, therefore giving itself the
flexibility needed before taking any action in hurry. The Asian equity markets
traded in green post-FOMC. The US 10-year yields did little, still below 2.15%
in Asia.
EUR/USD sold-off
to 1.2321 post-FOMC, to 1.2278 post-SNB. The positive trend got a clear hit
over the past two sessions. Option barriers trail below 1.2300 for today
expiry, a close below 1.2242/47 (MACD pivot & Dec 8th low) should confirm
fresh wave of EUR sell-off. EUR/GBP steps back below 0.79000. First line of
support stand at 0.78325 (October-December ascending base).
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