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Market Brief

NZD collapsed, USD strengthens its positions

At the beginning of a new week, all focus goes to NZD once again as it dropped heavily by -1.5% today versus the USD edging lower to $0.7752 , the lowest in a year. It is clear that the intervention by the Central Bank of New Zealand and New Zealand‘s prime minister comments had the major impact on their currency. RBNZ sold NZD $521 in August 2014, the highest since 2007. At the same time, NZD Prime Minister supported the RBNZ measures saying that the intervention will be logical as NZD value remains high. On the other hand, all other major currencies had bearish performance versus the greenback today in Asia. In Japan ‘USDJPY increased to 109.59 Yen, the highest level in almost seven years. The debate of the US rate hike and the improvement of the US yields to 2.58% on the US 10 Y treasury notes supported the USD, however many policy makers warned of the fast & massive drop of the Yen. Bank of Japan Kuroda reassured that the bank will be ready to adjust the monetary policy if needed. The Japanese equities benefited from the Yen weakness, achieving good gains, Topix 0.39%, Nikkei 0.50%. Japan will have a busy day, waiting for overall spending in August while the estimates remain positive, and meet Bank of Japan’s plans. Japan’s retail trade and unemployment rate will be scheduled to release later today.

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USD Maintains its Gains, the Global Equities Dropped

First and most, all focus goes to the greenback again, the most demanded currency in the global markets right now. All the major currencies dropped against the USD today in Asia, USD index increased to 85.28 achieving 0.10% gains, the highest level in four years. The global investors become fully aware that the Fed’s policies are leading the markets’ sentiments, especially the crucial interest rate hike. The global equities lost more than trillion USD this September as Bloomberg indicates. It’s important to say that many stock indexes achieved historical records and massive gains including the US sock indexes, however the correction would be expected at any time. The US durable goods orders retreated last month by -18.2%, the US initial jobless claims stabilized at 293K last week which is better than the estimates. In the meantime, the US market services dropped to 58.5 from 59.5 in August.

The US economic figures showed instability, and the US equities dropped yesterday, Dow Jones -1.54% , NASDAQ -1.94% , and S % P -1.62% to 1965 after heading to 2000 two days before. There are many scheduled economic news from the US for today, the US gross domestic product annualized, Reuters/ Michigan consumer sentiment index and the personal consumption expenditure. The US economy performs well, and the expectations seem positive.

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 AUD/USD is trading at 0.8863, down -0.25% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8887 and low at 0.8855.

AUD/USD has been pressured lower down to support and sideways channel base ahead of RBA’s Governor Stevens who is stepping up at the Melbourne Economic Forum today from 12:30pm Syd/10:30am. He will be talking on the “Financial System Reform and the Monetary System”. However, Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac noted that he maybe more likely to touch on themes in yesterday’s Financial Stability Review than address the interest rate outlook. “The RBA site says “remarks and panel participation” but media have been advised that Stevens will deliver only the opening remarks, so markets may well move on quickly”.

AUD/USD support and resistance levels

Support levels: 0.8860, 0.8830 and 0.8800.

Resistance levels: 0.8920, 0.8950 and 0.8990.

The Kiwi continues to consolidate near year lows, currently being paid at $0.8065, with the US Dollar bulls struggling to make further progress even since Sept 23 when a temporary bottom was found at the 0.8040/45 level, with three failed attempts so far.

According to Jim Langlands, Founder at FXCharts: "On the downside, bids will again be seen at 0.8050 (4 Feb low) and then at today’s session low at 0.8038. A break of that would see 0.8000 come under fire, below which would see a run to the Fibo support at 0.7985 (76.4% of 0.7670-0.8839) and then the channel base at 0.7970. Resistance is seen at 0.8090 (minor) and above there at the 100/200 HMA’s at 0.8110 and at 0.8130."

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Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, reviews the main events ahead for Wednesday, emphasizing the RBA semi-annual Financial Stability Review due at 1.30 GMT.

Key Quotes
"At 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK, the RBA releases its semi-annual Financial Stability Review. This report is normally ignored by markets and again any reaction on AUD would be a surprise. But there will be plenty of commentary worth noting on Australia’s financial sector such as investor leverage in housing. In particular, there has been a lot of media discussion over whether macroprudential measures might be employed to cool the housing market. Westpac’s view is that the RBA and regulator APRA will not introduce such measures before interest rates increase."

"At 11:45am Syd/9:45am local we see China’s Sep Westpac-MNI consumer sentiment survey. Weakness in this survey in Q2 was a much better leading indicator of the recent softness in official China activity data than the PMIs. The Aug headline index was 113.3, versus as high as 121.2 in May."

"Europe’s data highlight is the Sep IFO survey of German business confidence. Consensus is 105.8 versus Aug’s 106.3 overall, with the current conditions index 110.2 and expectations 101.2."
Analysts at Rabobak explained that Geo-political developments provide further reason for caution.

Key Quotes:
"US and several Gulf Arab allies yesterday launched air missile strikes on Islamic State strongholds in Iraq".

"Following recent comments from US Secretary of State John Kerry who expects Turkey to do more in fight against IS, Turkish Prime Minister Davutoglu stated that Turkey will decided on such issue in line with its national interests. Davutoglu proposed to form a “safe zone” on the other side of Turkey’s borders amid fighting in Iraq and Syria".

"Tensions at the border with Syria escalated over the weekend when Turkish forces used tear gas and fired shots in the air to disperse hundreds of Kurds who attempted to enter into Syria and fight against Islamic State militants who targeted a Kurdish-dominated town of Kobani".

USD/TRY appreciated to 2.2483 high on Monday (the highest since March) amid growing geopolitical risk before better than anticipated China’s manufacturing PMI provided modest relief".
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EUR/JPY is trading at 139.74, down -0.07% on the day, having posted a daily high at 139.92 and low at 139.69.

EUR/JPY remains sub of the 140 handle having lost territory overnight and has marked fresh lows on from Friday’s business. The pair comes with a bearish bias as a result. In the 4 hours chart indicators present a strong bearish slope and approach their midlines, not yet signalling a bearish continuation according to Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “The bearish move can extend down to 139.20, without really affecting the overall positive trend, yet a break below should signal a deeper movement, at least in the short term. Further gains are now expected only on a recovery above 140.40 a bit too far away for this Tuesday”.

EUR/JPY support and resistance levels 

Support levels: 139.50 139.20 138.60

Resistance levels: 140.00 140.40 140.80

President of the Fed of Minneapolis Narayana Kocherlakota, voting member this year, gave a speech on the 'objectives of monetary policy’. 

The policymaker noted that "Fed can let inflation exceed 2% to lower the jobless rate", adding that " the Fed should link dual mandate to market stability." 

Kocherlakota also mentioned that if inflation remains sub-2% too long, "it may affect expectation", adding that "a sub-2% inflation is as much a problem as above 2%." 

Kocherlakota said that Fed should adopt 2-yr benchmark for inflation goal, making the 2% inflation goal a symmetric one. 

Kocherlakota added: “Inflation persistently below the 2% target could create doubts in households and businesses about whether the FOMC is truly aiming for 2% inflation, or some lower number. This kind of unmooring of inflation expectations would reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy as a mitigant against adverse macroeconomic shocks.”

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USD/JPY: Bullish trend prevails - FXStreet
The dominant bullish trend should prevail this week, with pullback still seen as buying opportunities despite the overextended move, notes Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet.

"Latest retracement has found buyers in the 108.50/60 price zone, now immediate support, with 1 hour indicators aiming higher around their midlines, and moving averages maintaining their bullish slopes well below current price."

"In the 4 hours chart, indicators head higher in overbought territory after a limited downward correction, supporting the dominant bullish trend. Retracements down to mentioned price zone will likely attract buyers again while a break above 109.45 exposes the pair to an advance up to 110.00 critical figure
The Financial Times is reporting that Japan will most likely go ahead with a planned second tax hike for October next year, following an interview with Japan’s economy minister Amari.

The FT cites Amari, who said that a “second increase in taxes was necessary to meet rising costs for social security and to prevent a collapse in confidence in Japan’s ability to rein in its vast budget deficit.”

The FT adds: "In judging whether the consumption-tax hike is going to be implemented or not, we have to think whether any kind of measures can be taken so that the economy does not sink back into deflation. The key point here is that the Bank of Japan and the government should be aligned with each other.”
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Technical snap shots on majors and crosses - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities gave us a snap shot of the technicals across a number of majors and crosses at the close of this week's session.

"EUR/USD retains a weak undertone but looks oversold short-term; only gains through 1.2930/35 would signal any scope for near-term strength". 

"USD/JPY backs away from 109+ levels and the daily chart looks toppish short-term; expect losses to remain limited for now, however".

"EUR/GBP's break below the recent range base stalls and reverses today; the broader trend is lower, however, and we favour fading short-term GBP losses".

"EUR/PLN weakness should extend below 4.1725".

USD/JPY looking stretched on closing hour

USD/JPY is trading at 109.02, up 0.32% on the day, having posted a daily high at 109.48 and low at 108.59.

USD/JPY’s bull run looks very stretched according to analysts at TD Securities. “Daily charts show a possible “shooting star” top developing today though the signal does not appear to be especially strong and is not coincident with any obvious resistance points on the longer-term charts”. The analysts added that the steep rise over the past month may correct modestly but the USD is liable to find firm support on dips—“Initially to the high 106/low 107 range and certainly in the event of a drop back to the 105 zone”. 

More broadly: USD/JPY bull trend on track 

“Broader technical pointers are bullish; the H2 2014 rally suggests the broader bull trend is getting back on track and is liable to extend towards the mid 112 range (112.62 is the 76.4% retracement of the 2007/2012 decline from 124). Look to buy dips”.

USD/JPY levels

Spot is presently trading at 109.04, and next resistance can be seen at 109.32 (Daily Classic R2), 109.48, 109.67 (Daily Classic R3) and 110.68 (Weekly Classic R3). Support below can be found at 109.01 (Daily Classic R1),108.89 (Hourly 20 EMA), 108.70 and 108.69.

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 If GBP/USD managed to break clearly above 1.6440, Chris Capre, Founder at 2ndSkies, notes that next key upside resistance levels beyond are 1.6500 and 1.6540.

"As we mentioned in our members commentary yesterday, we suspected the GBP was more likely to rally as the price action was building up to that prior to the election."

"The main reasoning behind this was the stats on Betfair, showing 84% of the bets were for a 'No' vote on Scottish independence, thus reflecting the likely participation of the 'smart' money on the No side."

"Our main resistance levels mentioned were 1.6340 and 1.6440, and both those levels were tagged today as the pair pushed consistently higher. You can clearly see in the 1hr chart how the market reacted to both levels, treating the former as an intra-day role reversal level."

"For now while the votes are being collected, traders will want to watch the 1.6440 key resistance as the cable is leaning towards forming a break above here. Upside resistance levels beyond this are 1.6500 and 1.6540."

 Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation ABN gave an insight of the FX space overnight leading us into the Asian session with key events.

“Global risk appetite was mostly firm. The ECB's first TLTRO was a flop, with very muted interest from banks (raising hopes for QE) while EUR/CHF dropped as the SNB produced dovish forecasts but no new policies”. 

“GBP bounced in expectation of Scotland remaining in the UK”. 

“Results are due in the Asian morning. Over the weekend we have the G20 meeting and NZ election”.

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It is going to be a huge day in Europe, with key events including the SNB policy decision, the TLTRO allotment, the Scottish vote, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.

"A huge day in Europe starts with the Swiss National Bank’s quarterly monetary policy review (5:30pm Syd/3:30pm Sing/HK). A steady hand on the benchmark 0.0% 3mth CHF LIBOR rate is a given. But with Swiss inflation holding around zero and EUR widely expected to trend lower in coming months, the SNB could have its hands full maintaining the EUR/CHF 1.20 floor. Hence there could at least be some talk of negative deposit rates in the press conference."

"The allotment of the ECB’s first targeted long term refinancing operation (TLTRO) is due at 5:15pm Sing/HK (11:15am local). The median expectation for banks’ takeup of this facility is EUR150bn. A strong takeup would please the ECB and perhaps reduce pressure for yet more easing towards year end. But it would also mean a larger supply of EUR of which some could be sold for higher yielding currencies."

"Voting in the Scottish referendum takes place from 7am to 10pm local time, meaning polls close 7am Friday Sydney time, with no useful results likely until late morning or noon Friday Sydney. Polls mostly continue to indicate a narrow win for the ‘no’ vote. Confirmation of this could see GBP/USD bounce to 1.64-1.65 but a shock ‘yes’ could see a sterling collapse to anywhere in the 1.50-1.55 region."

The US data calendar is worth watching, with the main focus housing: Aug housing starts and building permits. Starts leapt 15.7% m/m in Jul, hence consensus of -5%. Initial jobless claims are also of interest as they cover the week of the Sep employment report. The median forecast is 305k after 315k the week prior."
AUD/USD keeps making lower lows in Asia, with the USD still strengthening ahead of Tokyo in response to the FOMC outcome, with the rate presently exchanging hands at 0.8940 lows.

According to Jim Langlands, Founder at FXCharts, by heaading below 0.8960, not only the target of a head annd shoulder has been reached, but "Aud has also taken out some very important levels, these being the rising monthly trend line from 2008 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace of 0.8660/0.9505 and has potential quite bearish consequences for the Aud."

Jim notes that the next levels to watch are "at 0.8923 (12 March low), 0.8890 (3 March low) and 0.8860 (76.4% of 0.8860/0.9505)." On the topside, "if we see a rally, 0.8980 will act as the initial resistance, beyond which sellers will now line up at 0.9000", Jim adds. ver the week of the Sep employment report. The median forecast is 305k after 315k the week prior."
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GBP/USD is trading at 1.6263, down -0.08% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6280 and low at 1.6249.

GBP/USD is on tenterhooks and markets are trading around updates in relation to the Yes / No pollings of whether Scotland will break away from the UK. The pound will come under fire as investors move away from British investments as there will be much uncertainty going forward of how relations between the countries will pan out in respect of trade and domestic operational capabilities while there are many questions still left unanswered in such a scenario where the United Kingdom loses Scotland to independency. 

Moreover, the BoE’s and MPC policy will be subsequent of this result going forward. On this note, the lower CPI readings will not support an early rate hike at this stage and as Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explains, if employment readings on Wednesday also result weak, chances of a tighter economic policy will reduce even further. Technically, she explained the 4 hours chart indicators are biased higher crossing above their midlines, with some further gains now pointing for a test of 1.6350, 50% retracement of the same rally.

GBP/USD support and resistance levels

Support levels: 1.6250 1.6220 1.6190 

Resistance levels: 1.6315 1.6350 1.6385

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USD/JPY is trading at 107.18, down -0.15% on the day, having posted a daily high at 107.38 and low at 107.01.

USD/JPY remains steady in a tight range on a light calendar for the pair ahead but attention in Asia looks to the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who will talk at a press conference about monetary policies in Tokyo. Meanwhile, Valeria Bednarik, Chief analyst at FXStreet explains that the tight range however has left the short term picture with a quite neutral stance, as per indicators horizontal around their midlines. “100 SMA stands now at 106.90 acting as first probable intraday support, while 200 SMA is way below at 106.20, the line in the sand in case of a bearish acceleration in the pair, as only below it current bullish trend may suffer”.

USD/JPY support resistance levels
Support levels: 106.80 106.50 106.10

Resistance levels: 107.40 107.90 108.20
Chris Capre, Founder at 2ndSkies Forex, shares his take on GBP/USD, noting that bears are likely to be awaiting higher up to sell with their larger orders ahead of the Scottish referendum.

"For the last several days, the Cable has been unable to break above the 1.6275 near term resistance. This is a key role reversal level short term. It should be noted bulls are consolidating near this level, with sellers yet to push back heavy."

"My sense is they are waiting higher up to sell with their larger orders, while having some small orders parked here."

"For now, this level is key, and price action is likely to be tight absent any news about the latest Scottish poll results."

"If 1.6275 breaks, then a trip to 1.6440 is the next upside target for the bulls. For bears, they will attempt to target 1.6150/60 near term, but again - all hinges upon the Scottish vote."
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RBS narrowly favours the FOMC keeping its guidance language little changed this week.

"The FOMC decision this week includes updated forecasts, including 2017 forecasts for the first time, and a press conference by Chair Yellen."

"The debate at the FOMC appears to have become more nuanced on the appropriate outlook for monetary policy, and the forward guidance language is likely to evolve at some point to more fully reflect a data-dependent outlook."

"Among the key debates at the FOMC meeting will be whether that change should happen at the September meeting, prior to the end of the QE taper, or following the conclusion of the taper in October."

"We narrowly favour the FOMC keeping its guidance language little changed this week, perhaps frustrating to those anticipating a more wholesale, USD positive change in sentiment and tone."

"While that may be seen as a near-term disappointment relative to heightened expectations, the US economy is still outperforming relative to the G4."

"That should keep longer-term expectations for a less dovish Fed alive, even if it is delayed by a few months."
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The US stocks market declined on Friday as well as it posted it first weekly decline since August as investors are focused on Fed's meeting on Wednesday and speculations on when the central bank will start to hike interest rates.

The Dow Jones declined 61.49 pts or 0.36% to finish at 16,987.51; 0.85% down in the week. The Nasdaq eased 24.21 pts or 0.53% to end Friday at 4,567.60; 0.33% negative in the week.
The S&P 500 fell 11.91 pts or 0.60% to close the session at 1,985.54, -1.1% on the weekly basis.
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The US stocks market declined on Friday as well as it posted it first weekly decline since August as investors are focused on Fed's meeting on Wednesday and speculations on when the central bank will start to hike interest rates. 

The Dow Jones declined 61.49 pts or 0.36% to finish at 16,987.51; 0.85% down in the week. The Nasdaq eased 24.21 pts or 0.53% to end Friday at 4,567.60; 0.33% negative in the week. 
The S&P 500 fell 11.91 pts or 0.60% to close the session at 1,985.54, -1.1% on the weekly basis.

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AUD/USD aiming for lower levels below 0.91
AUD/USD is trading pressured in Asia, with bears still the force in full control, presently at 0.9090 lows after the major bull trap from last Thursday following an astonishingly high Aus jobs report.

If one is to find a clear signal that suggest how bearish the sentiment has turned in the AUD/USD market, the latest Australian jobs report is the final prove. Not even such an outstanding 121k number vs 15k expected managed to turn the bear tide around.

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst, commented on the Aussie: "The technical picture has turned strongly bearish with the short term picture showing indicators still heading lower despite in oversold territory, with 20 SMA now offering dynamic resistance in case of recoveries around 0.9140. In the 4 hours chart the bearish momentum remains also quite strong with no signs of exhaustion at the time being, supporting a continued slide towards the 0.9000 price zone."

USD/JPY maintains 107.00 at the Tokyo open
USD/JPY opens the Tokyo session at 107.10, en-route to rested 107.17 high, still looking very bullish despite the over-extended move from recent weeks.

According to Jim Langlads, Founder at FXCharts: "107.30 should prove strong resistance and I am a bit doubtful that the dollar will take it out today unless the US retail sales are particularly strong. If that is the case, then look for a continuation towards 108.01 (Sept 19, 2008)..."

"With the 4 hour charts being at overbought extremes, dips are inevitable but look to be relatively shallow. Today’s low at 106.63 and then the 100 Month MA at 106.45 are the first obvious supports" Jim adds.
EUR/JPY: Risk of further upside - FXStreet
 According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at, some consolidation and a following acceleration above 138.40 is required to confirm a new leg up in EUR/JPY.

"The EUR/JPY extended its advance up to critical 138.40 price zone as expected, overcoming previous monthly high a few pips below and pressuring the strong resistance level first time since mid July."

"The 1 hour chart shows moving averages turning higher around 137.30 with 100 SMA approaching 200 one yet still below, while indicators stand directionless above their midlines."

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USD/JPY is pressing against the 106.00 handle at the Tokyo open, after reaching a rate as high as 106.49 (100 Month MA) during Tuesday.

Jim Langlands, Funder at FXCharts, notes: "Today should see some consolidation close to 106.00 I think, which would allow the shorter term charts to unwind their overbought condition; the 4 hour charts look rather top heavy and if we do head back below 106.00 then further support would be seen at last Fridays high at 105.70 and then at 105.50 and at 105.00."

On the contrary if bulls manage to regain control short term, and a break of 106.50 materializes, Jim notes that "there is not much resistance to be seen until the August 2008 high at 110.65, and then at the 76.4% Fibo level at 112.50."

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USD/JPY: Bulls in control, 106.45 next target
USD/JPY keeps strengthening in the early going of the Tokyo session, currently at 106.09 after posting new 6-year highs at 106.16 just minutes ago, following the break of the 106.00 barrier on Monday.

The combination of USD broad-based buying interest on Monday, coupled with buoyant US bond yields and a WSJ report citing Japan's PM advisor Mr. Honda as saying that the 2015 planned sales tax hikes should be delayed, all helped to increase the demand for the pair.

Jim Langlands, Founder at FXCharts, notes: "Barrier sellers ahead of 106.00 did not stand in the way for long, and now that this has been overcome I suspect we could soon be looking at the long held target at 106.45 (100MMA) which should slow up the dollar’s progress at least for a while, as we have not been above that indicator since Dec 2007. Beyond there, the next real resistance is not seen until the August 2008 high at 110.65. On the downside, the first bids will be seen at 105.70 and then at 105.50 and at 105.00.

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USD, AUD, CAD to remain well bid - FXWW

 Given the bearish sentiment that EUR, GBP, NZD, JPY face for varies reasons, Sean Lee, Founder at FXWW, notes that USD, AUD and CAD should remain well bid.

NZ manufacturing sector to make neutral contribution to Q2 GDP - ANZ

Following a weak manufacturing sales (Q2) in New Zealand, coming at -0.7% vs 0.2% last, Mark Smith, Senior Economist at ANZ, notes that the manufacturing sector is set to make a broadly neutral contribution to Q2 GD

NZD/USD holds above 0.83, RBNZ main focus

NZD/USD is presently in a consolidation pattern around 0.8320, having recovered off 0.8270 lows last Friday, in response to a weaker-than-expected US NFP, which may seen as an opportunity to sell the pair at better value levels.

AUD/USD slightly weaker at Tokyo open

AUD/USD enters the open of Tokyo oer 10-15 pips lower than its NY close, currently at 0.9365 after a close at 0.9378, with the US Dollar generally stronger across the FX board, a dominant theme that continues.

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USD/JPY accelerates and climbs to fresh 8-month highs


The US dollar gained momentum during the American session in the forex and rose further versus European currencies and printed a fresh 8-month high against the Yen.
The US dollar gained momentum during the American session in the forex and rose further versus European currencies and printed a fresh 8-month high against the Yen. EarlierUSD/JPY dropped to 104.75 but rebounded, rose back above 105.00 and continued to rise.

Recently peaked at 105.36, just a few pips above yesterday's highs, reaching levels not seen since January 2014. Price remained near the highs ahead of the key US employment report to be released on Friday.

US government bonds yields were rising, boosting the USD/JPY and also weakening the Japanese currency across the board. The AUD/JPY was trading at the highest level in more than a year above 98.50 while the CAD/JPY reached 97.00, for the first time since January.

US stocks rise, Euro plummets
The ECB lifted stocks in Europe and also US equities were rising.
The"> ECB lifted stocks in Europe and also US equities were rising. In Europe the FTSE 100 rose 0.06%, the Dax climbed 1.01% and the Cac 40 1.65%. The Dow Jones was rising 0.24%, the Nasdaq 0.27% and the S&P 500 0.26%.
In the US, ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report, the ADP numbers showed that private payrolls rose by 204,000 in August, below the 220.000 expected by analysts. Other economic data showed that initial jobless claims rose to 302,000 while the trade balance deficit in July was $40.55B, slightly below expectations.
Among currencies the euro is plunging across the board affected by ECB measures. European currencies were falling sharply: EUR/USD was near 1.2900, after a 200-pip decline, while the GBP/USD fell below 1.6400 and the USD/CHF rose above 0.9300.
Gold was trading flat, unable to consolidate above $1, 2700/oz, but holding near. Crude oil was retreating after rising sharply yesterday; the barrel was down 1% around $94.50.
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