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Market Brief
The New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed faster than expected in November from NZD -908 million to -213 million (vs. -575mn exp.), exports remained mostly stable (4.02billion), as imports decreased from 4.94 billion to 4.24 billion. NZD/USD remains offered below its 21-dma & Ichimoku conversion line (0.7775/76). The bias remains slightly negative.
AUD/USD extends weakness to 0.8088 in the continuation of its steady slide toward 80 cents. The sentiment remains AUD-bearish with traders now betting on higher probability RBA rate cuts in 2015 on commodity sell-off and ECB QE. Bids are presumed pre-0.80, light option offers trail below. AUD/NZD consolidates at fresh year lows (1.0477) with further slide presumed.
JPY crosses traded quiet due to Tokyo holidays. USD/JPY stepped gently above 120.00. With Abenomics still in charge post December 14th, the USD/JPY is ready to advance steadily higher. The first target sits at 121.85 (Dec 8th high). EUR/JPY remains well offered below the Ichi base line (147.37) on broad EUR-negative sentiment.
Moody’s lowered Russia’s FX deposit ceiling to Ba1 from Baa2, foreign currency bond ceiling to Baa2 from A3, warned the Russian FX reserves will continue falling in 2015. The ruble unwind cools-off for the moment, there is talk of government forcing the main exporters to sell their excessive USD from business proceeds. In term, the broad direction remains RUB-negative. The support zone is seen at 48.70/50.00 (50-dma / psychological level).
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