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Market Brief
Forex markets were handed a surprise decision by the Bank of Japan which sent JPY significantly lower across the board.  The BoJ announced an increase in the speed of expansion in its monetary base by “about” JPY80 trn per year (verse JPY60-70 trn). Previously the expansion was conducted through a combination of JGB purchases, liquidity through loan support programs and purchase of other assets. However now it looks as if a vast majority will be straight JGB purchases. Importantly to equity markets the speed of ETF and J-Reit purchases will increase as well (sending Nikkei higher). The vote was 5-4 with the majority citing downward pressure on prices as the key reason for more QQE. The market’s reaction to the unexpected decision (please note we had projected this outcome- see Weekly Market Report) drove USDJPY to new multi-years high at 111.53. Foreign exchange trading strategies kick into full gear as USDJPY took out critical levels in 110.67 August 2008 high and 111.47 the 1998 peak while EUR/JPY rallied above the 138.60 pivot, and the 200-dma at 139.06. Equity markets are broadly stronger across Asia. The Nikkei rallied a massive 4.83% (supported by the additional QQE and reallocation in GPIF) , the Hang Seng up 1.09% and Shanghai rose 1.22% and the Kospi has risen 0.23%. S&P futures are currently trading higher up 0.2%.
Elsewhere, in Japan, the media is reporting that Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) will report alterations in its asset allocation structure today. The press reports that GPIF domestic debt allocation will drop to 35% from 60% and foreign holding will increase to 15% from 11%. On the data front, Japan’s CPI increased 3.2% y/y below consensus and prior read of 3.3% in August. Core inflation rose 3.0% y/y in September, in line with expectations but slower than the 3.1% increase previously reported. USDJPY rally has run its course for today and our forex trading strategy would be short for a quick reversion to 110.80-111.00 support.
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Market Brief
Forex strategies have shifted towards buying USD on the back of the Federal Reserve announcement to end QE. The Fed announcement ended its current round of QE by cutting purchases of Treasuries and MBS $15 billion to $0. In addition, the FOMC announcement linked any increase in the fed funds rate to economic data, giving the central bank a bit more flexibility in policy setting. In a slight shift in tone, the statement sounded more hawks than expected. The Fed upgraded its outlook on the job market noting that “labour market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate”. While policymakers repeated that rates should remain unchanged "for a considerable time"  there is an increased probability that the first fed fund rate hike could come prior to mid-2015, contingent on the development of economic data. The final vote to end QE was 9-1, with Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota dissenting arguing that QE3 should have been continued. The post –Fed reaction was heavy buying USD verse most G10 and EM currencies, supported by higher yields. USDJPY was well  bid rallying to 109.26 with little pause or pullbacks along the way. EURUSD fell sharply for most of the Asian session dropping to 1.2571. AUD and NZD were both sold heavily verse the USD on monetary policy divergence falling to 0.8757 and 0.7780 respectively. AUDNZD rallied to 1.1261 preceding a more dovish than anticipated policy statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Long only commodity trading systems were hit hard as gold and silver fell sharply to 1201.53 and 16.80 respectively, after a false recovery. Asia equity markets were able to shrug off the end of the US QE program as the Nikkei rallied 0.67%, Shanghai composite rose 0.79% yet the Hang Seng fell 0.55%. US S&P 500 futures are currently trading in the green.

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Japan’s GPIF – the world’s largest pension fund - allocated less than 50% of its assets in domestic bonds for the first time at end of September, according to a Reuters report today. USD/JPY and JPY crosses traded mixed in Tokyo, Nikkei stocks gained 1.46%. Yesterday’s close above 108.00 (MACD pivot) turned the bias on the upside. Option bids are noted at 108.00/25 for today’s expiry. The ascending Ichimoku cloud cover (105.27/107.15) will likely give support before the FOMC verdict later today. The USD/JPY direction will be contingent on global USD move later today. EUR/JPY tests 50/100-dma (137.57/66) on the upside. We see a formation of bearish engulfing line (on Oct 27th) indicating a future bearish trend. Resistance should come into play at daily Ichimoku cover (138.48/139.12).

Released in New York yesterday, the US durable goods orders contracted 1.3% on month to September, reviving dovish Fed speculations. The significant improvement in consumer confidence in October (from 86.0 to 94.5 vs 87 exp.) tempered weakness in USD. The FOMC gives policy verdict today and is expected to announce the end of the QE3 program. This implies cutting the last 15 billion dollar worth Treasury and MBS purchases, this amount is above the regular 10 billion dollar decrease since the tapering started. Anything less than 15 billion dollar should give additional boost to Fed-doves. The accompanying statement should remain cautious as the Fed will certainly prefer to keep its maneuver margin as wide as possible. The greenback is weaker against its G10 peers, the US 10-year yields remain below 2.30% resistance on week.

EUR/USD bull momentum develops via higher-lows pattern over the 4 past sessions. The short-term bias is positive. Broad USD weakness is believed to play major role in the short-term bull pattern. Resistance is seen at 1.2853/55/86 (Fib 23.6% on May-Oct sell-off / 50-dma / Oct 15th high). Option bets are mixed with slight positive bias at 1.2700/1.2880 pre-FOMC, barriers are touted at 1.29+. EUR/GBP tests 0.79 offers. A daily close below 0.7912 will keep the bias on the downside.

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Market Brief

Japanese retail sales unexpectedly accelerated to 2.7% in month to September, significantly beating 0.9% expectations (vs. 1.9% a month ago); large retailers’ sales slowed to 0.5% however, from 1.6% a month ago. The BoJ Governor Kuroda said that the inflation is half-way to goal as sales tax effect fades, adding that the BoJ will not hesitate to ease more if needed. USD/JPY and JPY crosses traded mixed in Tokyo, Nikkei stocks retreated 0.38%. USD/JPY couldn’t make it higher than 108.00, the bull momentum did not pick-up amid yesterday’s close at 107.92. We see further test of 108.00-offers if breached should signal a short-term bullish reversal for a close above 108.00 (MACD pivot). EUR/JPY sees resistance at daily Ichimoku base line (137.18). Given the weak EUR enthusiasm, offers at 50/100 dma (137.56/66) should cap the bull attempts.

EUR/USD sees support at its 21-dma (1.2692) since the ECB announced the purchase of 1.704 billion euros of covered bonds last week; this is twice as much as the market estimates (appr. 800 million euros). Starting from yesterday, the ECB will announce the amount of its purchases on weekly basis. According to ECB Vice President Constancio, there is a pool of 600 billion covered bonds and 400 billion ABS adequate for the ECB purchases. This picture does not hint at a potential QE and therefore gives support to EUR/USD pre-FOMC (Wed). Trend and momentum indicators are positive, the short-term resistance is eyed at 1.2853/1.2886 (area including Fib 23.6% on May-Oct sell-off, 50-dma & Oct 15th high). The support is placed at 1.2571/1.2614.

Among the G10 peers, NOK and CAD clearly suffer from the persistent slide in oil prices. The WTI hit a fresh low of $79.44 in New York yesterday. The bias in oil markets remains negative, suggesting the strengthening of the bull market in USD/CAD and USD/NOK. The recent macro developments should temper the EUR/CAD bears. The MACD (12, 26) is now flat. A daily close above 1.4265 should keep the bias on the upside.

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EUR/USD: SELL- 1.2708, TP- 1.2678, SL- 1.2748

USD/JPY: BUY- 107.83, TP- 108.13, SL- 107.43

GBP/USD: SELL- 1.6129, TP- 1.6099, SL- 1.6169

USD/CHF: BUY- 0.9489, TP- 0.9519, SL- 0.9449

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EUR/USD
SELL: 1.2705 TP: 1.2673 SL: 1.2743

USD/JPY
BUY: 107.93 TP: 108.25 SL: 107.55

GBP/USD
SELL: 1.6103 TP: 1.6070 SL: 1.6140

USD/CHF
BUY: 0.9495 TP: 0.9527 SL: 0.9457

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EUR/USD
BUY- 1.2633, TP- 1.2663, SL- 1.2593

USD/JPY
SELL- 107.29, TP- 106.99, SL- 107.69

GBP/USD
BUY- 1.6040, TP- 1.6070, SL- 1.6000

USD/CHF
SELL- 0.9547, TP- 0.9517, SL- 0.9587

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EUR/USD
SELL- 1.2726, TP- 1.2696, SL- 1.2766

USD/JPY
BUY- 106.83, TP- 107.13, SL- 106.43

GBP/USD
SELL- 1.6122, TP- 1.6092, SL- 1.6162

USD/CH
BUY- 0.9480, TP- 0.9510, SL- 0.9440

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EUR/USD
SELL- 1.2820, TP- 1.2791, SL- 1.2881

USD/JPY
BUY- 106.36, TP- 106.66, SL- 105.86

GBP/USD
BUY- 1.6163, TP- 1.6208, SL- 1.6118

USD/CHF
BUY- 0.9408, TP- 0.9437, SL- 0.9357

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EUR/USD
SELL- 1.2757, TP- 1.2727, SL- 1.2797

USD/JPY
SELL- 107.35, TP- 107.05, SL- 107.75

GBP/USD
SELL- 1.6109, TP- 1.6079, SL- 1.6149

USD/CHF
BUY- 0.9463, TP- 0.9493, SL- 0.9423

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Market Brief
The foreign interest in Japanese stocks turned negative in week to October, the total demand for Japanese bonds increased; 600 billion yen decrease in foreign demand has been well compensated by 796 billion yen demand from Japanese investors. USD/JPY and JPY crosses were mostly offered in Tokyo as Nikkei stocks closed the day 1.40% lower. USD/JPY remained capped at 106.50. Trend and momentum indicators are comfortably negative, suggesting deeper downside correction. Resistance is eyed at 106.64/107.00 (Fib 61.8% on Jul-Oct rally /optionality). Large vanilla calls at 104.50/105.50 should anchor the downside pre-weekend. From next week, option related offers trail down to 105.00, with large expiry at 106.25 due on Monday. EUR/JPY spiked down to 134.14, lowest since Nov 20th, 2013.
EUR/USD hit the 1.2845 resistance yesterday, yet failed to extend gains as top seller strategies prevailed after data confirmed the continuing softness in Euro-zone CPI. The sell-off in peripheral bonds continue with Greek 10-year yields at 9%. The strong positive correlation between core/periphery spread and EUR/USD seems limiting the downside in EUR/USD. Option bids for today expiry are placed at 1.2750/1.2850/1.2900+, offers abound below 1.2740.
AUD/USD finds some support above 0.8643/60 (year low levels) as short-term technicals continue pointing at correction. NZD/USD continues testing 0.8000-offers. Large call expiries at 0.7900/40 should give some upside support before the closing bell.
USD/CAD consolidates gains at 5-year highs as oil prices slightly recover after WTI active contracts traded below $80 yesterday, first time since mid-2012. Canada publishes CPI data today (12:30 GMT). Markets expect slight cool-off in inflation (from 2.1% to 2.0% y/y). The BoC needs softer inflation to keep its policy accommodative. Especially at times the international oil prices threaten country’s largest export business. Therefore, a strong read should lead to some appreciation in CAD-complex. The key short-term support is seen at 1.1200/05 (optionality, MACD pivot and Fib 23.6% on Jul-Oct rise). A close below this level should signal a short-term bearish reversal.
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Market Brief

The foreign interest in Japanese stocks turned negative in week to October, the total demand for Japanese bonds increased; 600 billion yen decrease in foreign demand has been well compensated by 796 billion yen demand from Japanese investors. USD/JPY and JPY crosses were mostly offered in Tokyo as Nikkei stocks closed the day 1.40% lower. USD/JPY remained capped at 106.50. Trend and momentum indicators are comfortably negative, suggesting deeper downside correction. Resistance is eyed at 106.64/107.00 (Fib 61.8% on Jul-Oct rally /optionality). Large vanilla calls at 104.50/105.50 should anchor the downside pre-weekend. From next week, option related offers trail down to 105.00, with large expiry at 106.25 due on Monday. EUR/JPY spiked down to 134.14, lowest since Nov 20th, 2013.

EUR/USD hit the 1.2845 resistance yesterday, yet failed to extend gains as top seller strategies prevailed after data confirmed the continuing softness in Euro-zone CPI. The sell-off in peripheral bonds continue with Greek 10-year yields at 9%. The strong positive correlation between core/periphery spread and EUR/USD seems limiting the downside in EUR/USD. Option bids for today expiry are placed at 1.2750/1.2850/1.2900+, offers abound below 1.2740.

AUD/USD finds some support above 0.8643/60 (year low levels) as short-term technicals continue pointing at correction. NZD/USD continues testing 0.8000-offers. Large call expiries at 0.7900/40 should give some upside support before the closing bell.

USD/CAD consolidates gains at 5-year highs as oil prices slightly recover after WTI active contracts traded below $80 yesterday, first time since mid-2012. Canada publishes CPI data today (12:30 GMT). Markets expect slight cool-off in inflation (from 2.1% to 2.0% y/y). The BoC needs softer inflation to keep its policy accommodative. Especially at times the international oil prices threaten country’s largest export business. Therefore, a strong read should lead to some appreciation in CAD-complex. The key short-term support is seen at 1.1200/05 (optionality, MACD pivot and Fib 23.6% on Jul-Oct rise). A close below this level should signal a short-term bearish reversal.

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Market Brief

The falling oil prices hits the oil exporter currencies heavily. USD/CAD advances to fresh 5-year high of 1.1344 as crude declines to $81.32. The upside move gained good momentum after breaking the former high (1.1279). Bullish trend gains pace, option bids build strong above 1.1200/50 walking into Friday’s CPI reading. Markets expect slight cool down in Canadian infaltion dynamics from 2.1% to 2.0% y/y. Soft inflation should reinforce CAD-bears giving more dovish flexbility to Poloz’s BoC. Especially at times Canada’s larger export business is threatened by falling prices. The BoC rate decision is due on Octobe 22nd, we expect dovish stance.

Another currency heavily hit by oil prices is the Ruble. USD/RUB extends gains to fresh all-time high of 41.0419, as oil prices continue sliding. The Central Bank of Russia canceled its bond auction today, the Russian 10-year government yields hit 9.98% (highest levels since Oct 2009). Trend and momentum indicators are comfortably positive, option bids are building at 40.00+.

In China, the CPI grew 1.6% y/y, near 5-year lows (vs. 1.7% exp. & 2.0% last), the PPI decelerated at the pace of 1.8% (vs. -1.6% exp. & -1.2% last). USD/CNY rebounded to 6.1300 as the soft inflation revived expectations for more PBoC stimulus. Large option barriers are placed at 6.13/6.14 and 6.15 for today expiry. The bias remains negative, with resistance seen at 6.1363/95 (21-dma / MACD pivot).

GBP/USD extended losses to 1.5877 overnight as Asia followed the post-CPI sell-off. The UK labor data is due today (08:30 GMT), expectations are optimistic. We will be closely monitoring the wage growth in August data. Any negative surprise should place 1.5855-support at risk. Resistances are placed at 1.6003 (Fib 50% on Jul’13 – Jul’14 rally), 1.6182 (21-dma), 1.6284 (Fib 61.8%). EUR/GBP tests 100-dma (0.79555) on the upside. Trend and momentum indicators are comfortably bullish. Option barriers at 0.7960/80 are to be cleared.

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Market Brief
The Japanese producer prices retreated by 0.1% on month to September as expected, pulling the yearly PPI down to 3.5% (from 3.9 y/y previously).The M2 and M3 money stocks increased 3.0% and 2.5% respectively (stable pace). USD/JPY and JPY crosses were better bid in Tokyo, despite 2.38% drop in Nikkei stocks. USD/JPY rebounded from 106.77 at session open, remained capped at 107.30. Option barriers at 107.75/108.00 likely to limit the upside as US yields weaken (US 10-year yields hit 2.2361%). On the downside, the key support zone remains 106.64/81 (Fib 61.8% on Jul-Oct rally / Sep 16th low). EUR/JPY rebounded from the fresh 2014 low of 135.55 yesterday. Recovery in EUR helped keeping downside safe. Resistance is seen at 137.02/51 (daily Ichimoku cloud cover).
The broad based USD weakness pushed EUR/USD above its 21-dma (1.2736). Trend and momentum indicators are positive. Option related offers are placed at 1.2795/1.2825 zone for today expiry. France, Spain and Italy publish September final CPI today; soft readings will likely lead to top selling in EUR/USD. German and Euro-zone aggregate CPI are due on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
GBP/USD consolidates between 1.5944-1.6239 (2014 low / Fib 23.6% on Jul-Oct sell-off). Trend and momentum indicators are flat; a daily close below 1.6032 (MACD pivot) should keep the bias on the downside. The UK publishes September inflation report today (08:30 GMT). Markets expect the CPI y/y at 1.4% (vs. 1.5% a month ago). The soft inflation dynamics clearly give more time to BoE before the policy normalization as the BoE’s inflation target band stands at a distant 2-3%. A negative surprise should weigh on the Cable, placing 1.5944 at risk, while faster inflation should give some support above year lows as USD strength curbs.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD were better bid on growth supportive news from China. PBoC cut its 14-day repurchase agreement rate by 0.10 percentage point to lower borrowing costs. USD/CNY broke the triple dip support & Fib support (6.1264) and fell to 6.1229 for the first time since March 7th. We see the extension of weakness towards 6.10s as 21-dma resistance holds. Large NZD/USD vanilla call is waiting to be activated at 0.7940 (above 21-dma, 0.7938).

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Market Brief
The Japanese producer prices retreated by 0.1% on month to September as expected, pulling the yearly PPI down to 3.5% (from 3.9 y/y previously).The M2 and M3 money stocks increased 3.0% and 2.5% respectively (stable pace). USD/JPY and JPY crosses were better bid in Tokyo, despite 2.38% drop in Nikkei stocks. USD/JPY rebounded from 106.77 at session open, remained capped at 107.30. Option barriers at 107.75/108.00 likely to limit the upside as US yields weaken (US 10-year yields hit 2.2361%). On the downside, the key support zone remains 106.64/81 (Fib 61.8% on Jul-Oct rally / Sep 16th low). EUR/JPY rebounded from the fresh 2014 low of 135.55 yesterday. Recovery in EUR helped keeping downside safe. Resistance is seen at 137.02/51 (daily Ichimoku cloud cover).
The broad based USD weakness pushed EUR/USD above its 21-dma (1.2736). Trend and momentum indicators are positive. Option related offers are placed at 1.2795/1.2825 zone for today expiry. France, Spain and Italy publish September final CPI today; soft readings will likely lead to top selling in EUR/USD. German and Euro-zone aggregate CPI are due on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
GBP/USD consolidates between 1.5944-1.6239 (2014 low / Fib 23.6% on Jul-Oct sell-off). Trend and momentum indicators are flat; a daily close below 1.6032 (MACD pivot) should keep the bias on the downside. The UK publishes September inflation report today (08:30 GMT). Markets expect the CPI y/y at 1.4% (vs. 1.5% a month ago). The soft inflation dynamics clearly give more time to BoE before the policy normalization as the BoE’s inflation target band stands at a distant 2-3%. A negative surprise should weigh on the Cable, placing 1.5944 at risk, while faster inflation should give some support above year lows as USD strength curbs.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD were better bid on growth supportive news from China. PBoC cut its 14-day repurchase agreement rate by 0.10 percentage point to lower borrowing costs. USD/CNY broke the triple dip support & Fib support (6.1264) and fell to 6.1229 for the first time since March 7th. We see the extension of weakness towards 6.10s as 21-dma resistance holds. Large NZD/USD vanilla call is waiting to be activated at 0.7940 (above 21-dma, 0.7938).

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Market Brief

The USD opened weak across the board amid dovish Fed comments over the weekend. Fed’s Evans highlighted the slack in the labor market (despite 5.9% unemployment) and said more QE is needed if the growth and inflation dive. Evans said the US needs more inflation, while stronger USD weighs on price dynamics. Tarullo voiced his concerns about downside risks to the global economy, adding that the Fed should consider IMF call before taking bold action. USD sold-off against the majority of G10 and EM. The Asian equities opened in red, while the US 10-year yields fell to fresh year low of 2.28%.

In China, the September trade figures were mixed. The trade surplus narrowed from 49.84 to 30.94 billion dollars, but exports surged  15.3% on year to September (vs. 12.0% exp. & 9.4% last), imports grew 7.0% y/y (vs. -2.0% exp. & 2.4% last). USD/CNY tests 6.1256/64 on the downside (Sep 26th low / Fibonacci 38.2% on Jan-May rise), triple dip support since Sep 11th if broken should open the way to 6.10s psychological support. AUD/USD traded down to 0.8652 before the China trade data and USD weakness helped recovery to 0.8750. Option barriers are tipped at 0.8800/50.

Higher risk aversion and lower US yields pulled USD/JPY to 107.06 early in Asia. Stronger bearish momentum suggests deeper downside correction. The closest support is seen at 106.64/81 (Fib 61.8% on Jul-Oct rally / Sep 16th low), option related bids trail above 105.00. EUR/JPY extended losses to 135.55 – a fresh 2014 low. Option barriers for today expiry are placed at 136.75. 

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Market Brief

In Australia, home loans fell 0.9% in month to August; the investment lending contracted 0.1%, while owner-occupier loans (desired ones) dropped 2.0%. The concerns on overheating mortgage markets, especially on investment side is at RBA’s focus. Australian policymakers are expected to introduce macro prudential measures to cool down lending for investment, presumably for speculative purposes. AUD/USD fell to 0.8747 early in Sydney on news that China increases coal import tariffs and further fall in commodity prices (crude oil dropped -2.0% overnight). The pair recovered to 0.8785 later on unsatisfactory home lending data. Trend and momentum indicators remain marginally bullish.

USD/CAD paired gains down to 1.1082 yesterday on attempt to adjust USD positioning post dovish Fed minutes. The MACD flattened, will suggest deeper downside correction for a week close below 1.1200 (MACD pivot). Canada publishes September labor data today and the expectations are optimistic. First line of support is seen at 1.1103+ (21-dma), more bids are touted at 1.1000/28 (optionality / Fib 61.8% retracement on Mar-July drop), stops are eyed below. On the upside , the key resistance stands at 1.1279 (Mar 20th high).

As expected, the BoE maintained the status quo in yesterday’s MPC meeting. The bank rate remains unchanged at 0.5%, the asset purchases target at GBP 375bn. GBP/USD remained ranged on lack of further BoE communication, minutes are due on October 22nd. Offers remain solid at 1.6230/40 (region including 21-dma and Fibonacci 23.6% on Jul-Oct sell-off). Option related offers trail down from 1.6050 for today expiry. The key support remains at 1.5944 (Oct 6th low). EUR/GBP consolidates gains below 0.79000. Option barriers abound at 0.79500/0.80000 pre-weekend.

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Market Brief
The US dollar is back in demand before the US labor data today. The consensus for September change in NFPs is 215K vs. 142K printed a month ago; the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 6.1%. The average earnings will also be closely monitored as the FOMC Chair Yellen aims for faster growing wages for tighter slack in the labor market. The US yield curve has flattened over the past week, the 10-year yields are still below 2.45% despite the broad USD strength across G10 and EM. Today’s data determine whether the USD has topped or it has room for further gains.
For USD/CAD, the US labor data and the Canada’s trade balance will be determinant. With analysts betting for declining trade surplus in Canada (especially due to soft energy prices) and USD/CAD technicals still pointing the upside, the year-high 1.1279 is at the radar. On the downside, option bids at 1.1000/50 should give support before the weekly closing bell.
The candle patterns analysis signals the formation of bullish engulfing pattern (with 5/9 conviction level) on AUD/USD, AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD, bearish engulfing on EUR/AUD (4/9 conviction). Short-term bullish reversal is expected in the AUD-complex given the oversold conditions. While the price action on AUD/USD and AUD/CAD is contingent on North American data, the technicals will play greater role on AUD/CHF and EUR/AUD direction. A week close above 0.8406 for the AUD/CHF, and below 1.4340 for the EUR/AUD (MACD pivots) should favor deeper correction in favor of the Aussie on both pairs.
EUR/USD traded ranged as the ECB maintained the status quo in October meeting. The President Draghi delivered details on the ABS and covered bonds purchases program: the ECB will buy covered bonds starting from mid-October and the ABS by year-end. The private debt purchasing program will last at least two years. The ECB will be inclusive as possible on ABS purchases; assets from countries below BBB- rating (as Greece, Cyprus) will require caveats as compensation for risk. The TLTROs combined to ABS and covered bond purchases all together will have significant impact on ECB’s balance sheet and is roughly estimated worth 1 trillion euros. The goal is to stir the ECB balance sheet to early 2012 levels (approximately 3 trillion euros vs. 2 trillion actually). “Insufficient progress in structural reforms in Euro area countries constitutes a key downward risk to economic outlook” reiterates President Draghi.

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Market Brief

The US dollar is back in demand before the US labor data today. The consensus for September change in NFPs is 215K vs. 142K printed a month ago; the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 6.1%. The average earnings will also be closely monitored as the FOMC Chair Yellen aims for faster growing wages for tighter slack in the labor market. The US yield curve has flattened over the past week, the 10-year yields are still below 2.45% despite the broad USD strength across G10 and EM. Today’s data determine whether the USD has topped or it has room for further gains.

For USD/CAD, the US labor data and the Canada’s trade balance will be determinant. With analysts betting for declining trade surplus in Canada (especially due to soft energy prices) and USD/CAD technicals still pointing the upside, the year-high 1.1279 is at the radar. On the downside, option bids at 1.1000/50 should give support before the weekly closing bell.

The candle patterns analysis signals the formation of bullish engulfing pattern (with 5/9 conviction level) on AUD/USD, AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD, bearish engulfing on EUR/AUD (4/9 conviction). Short-term bullish reversal is expected in the AUD-complex given the oversold conditions. While the price action on AUD/USD and AUD/CAD is contingent on North American data, the technicals will play greater role on AUD/CHF and EUR/AUD direction. A week close above 0.8406 for the AUD/CHF, and below 1.4340 for the EUR/AUD (MACD pivots) should favor deeper correction in favor of the Aussie on both pairs.

EUR/USD traded ranged as the ECB maintained the status quo in October meeting. The President Draghi delivered details on the ABS and covered bonds purchases program: the ECB will buy covered bonds starting from mid-October and the ABS by year-end. The private debt purchasing program will last at least two years. The ECB will be inclusive as possible on ABS purchases; assets from countries below BBB- rating (as Greece, Cyprus) will require caveats as compensation for risk. The TLTROs combined to ABS and covered bond purchases all together will have significant impact on ECB’s balance sheet and is roughly estimated worth 1 trillion euros. The goal is to stir the ECB balance sheet to early 2012 levels (approximately 3 trillion euros vs. 2 trillion actually). “Insufficient progress in structural reforms in Euro area countries constitutes a key downward risk to economic outlook” reiterates President Draghi.

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Market Brief

The US dollar is back in demand before the US labor data today. The consensus for September change in NFPs is 215K vs. 142K printed a month ago; the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 6.1%. The average earnings will also be closely monitored as the FOMC Chair Yellen aims for faster growing wages for tighter slack in the labor market. The US yield curve has flattened over the past week, the 10-year yields are still below 2.45% despite the broad USD strength across G10 and EM. Today’s data determine whether the USD has topped or it has room for further gains.

For USD/CAD, the US labor data and the Canada’s trade balance will be determinant. With analysts betting for declining trade surplus in Canada (especially due to soft energy prices) and USD/CAD technicals still pointing the upside, the year-high 1.1279 is at the radar. On the downside, option bids at 1.1000/50 should give support before the weekly closing bell.

The candle patterns analysis signals the formation of bullish engulfing pattern (with 5/9 conviction level) on AUD/USD, AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD, bearish engulfing on EUR/AUD (4/9 conviction). Short-term bullish reversal is expected in the AUD-complex given the oversold conditions. While the price action on AUD/USD and AUD/CAD is contingent on North American data, the technicals will play greater role on AUD/CHF and EUR/AUD direction. A week close above 0.8406 for the AUD/CHF, and below 1.4340 for the EUR/AUD (MACD pivots) should favor deeper correction in favor of the Aussie on both pairs.

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Market Brief

The USD squeeze has been the main highlight of the overnight FX trading. The US 10-year government yields tumbled down to 2.38%. The high-beta commodity currencies gained the most, in an effort to pare last weeks’ significant losses. NZD, AUD and CAD outperformed their G10 peers, EM currencies recovered before Friday’s NFPs.

USD/CAD sold-off from 1.1223 (highest since March 24th) in Toronto yesterday, the positive momentum decelerated.  Bids are seen at 1.1000/36 (optionality / 21-dma). The Canadian trade data and the NFPs will be important to define whether the downside move is a short-term correction or bearish reversal pre-weekend. The critical support stands at 1.1279 (year high).

In New Zealand, the NZD/USD gained more than 1.0% despite soft news out of the commodity markets. According to ANZ Bank, the commodity prices fell 1.3% on month to September (-9.4% on year); skim milk powder prices tumbled 14% on month, butter prices lost 8%. What kept AUD and NZD in demand has been the easing property restrictions in China. AUD/USD rebounded from yesterday’s 0.8663 low (a stone’s throw higher than 0.8660 year-low). The Antipodeans remain highly sensitive to US yields. A pick-up in UST yields should quickly reverse direction.

USD/JPY and JPY crosses traded mixed in Tokyo. USD/JPY sold-off to 108.55 on broad USD weakness. The MACD (12, 26) turned negative after decent sell-off from six-year high 110.09. Deeper downside correction is not ruled out pre-NFPs. First line of support is eyed at 107.91 (21-dma), then 106.82 (daily Ichimoku base line). EUR/JPY is offered below its 50-dma (137.72), the EUR risk is high pre-ECB.

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Market Brief

Risk Sentiment in the Asian session was mixed as investors contemplated what response Beijing would have to the protests in Hong Kong. USD was slightly on offer as higher yielding currencies regained some losses. EURUSD bounced around the 1.2674 with no clear driver. AUDUSD fell sharply at the start of the session to 0.8695 before quickly recovering to 0.8764 for no apparent reason. Protest in Hong Kong sent the Hang Seng down -1.28%, yet Shanghai was able to gain 0.28%. Outside of China most of Asia were slightly lower, led by the Nikkei which dropped -0.84%.

Japan’s industrial production was weak falling 1.5%m/m in August, lower then market-expected rise of 0.2%. Annual output dropped 2.9% following a decline of 0.7% the previous month. However, retail sales jumped to the upside, up 1.9%m/m verse 0.5 expected and after a weak fall of 0.5%m/m July. While the protest in Hong Kong are grabbing the spot light hurting general risk sentiment China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 50.2 in September, from earlier estimate of 50.5. In New Zealand, ANZ business confidence fell to its lowest level since Summer 2012 in September to 13.4 from 24.4 in August. the decline was attributed to election uncertainty which weighed on sentiment. However, ANZ activity outlook, which has a higher predictive power to growth remained solid at at 37.

On the docket today, we have UK Q2 GDP growth with consensus of 0.8% q/q. We suspect the risk is to the upside. Now that the Scottish referendum is safely passed the focus is back on fundamentals. Give the solid data reads there is still a significant probability that the BoE will start tightening before the new year. While we continue to see a strong risk that the BOE might start tightening before the end of the year.

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