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Market Brief
Swiss franc extend gains as safe heaven inflows push the currency higher against EUR and USD. After trading below 1.05, EUR/CHF struggles to stabilize above this level with increasing suspicions that the SNB might be giving support to today’s recovery. In Japan, the fiscal year end demand in yen caps the upside in JPY-crosses. Friday’s inflation read in Japan should revive concerns that the inflation might deviate from the right direction and trigger fresh JPY sales as the country steps into the new fiscal year.

EUR/CHF struggles to climb back above 1.05

EUR/CHF traded below what the market has accepted as the SNB’s 1.05/1.10 implicit band, despite sustained buying interest in the majority of EUR-crosses. EUR/CHF legged down to 1.04222 yesterday, the break below 1.05 threshold triggered some stress on the euroswiss futures, up to 100.890 for the first time since the SNB refrained to cut rates on March 19th scheduled meeting. EUR/CHF moved back above 1.05 as Europe walked in, with suspicions that the SNB might be back in the game.

The decoupling between EUR/CHF and EUR/USD signals that safe haven flows leads to the actual Swiss franc appreciation, as the bailout talks between Greece and the EU do not finalize. We closely monitor the rate markets in order to keep track of any tension that would signal a potential, unscheduled SNB intervention. Given the global macroeconomic setting, the SNB has room to pull the rates lower in case of emergency. The market should easily absorb 15-25 basis point cut should the EUR risks materialize. (Grexit, Greece insolvability).

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