Wednesday, March 18, 2015

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Market Brief
Today’s key event is the FOMC decision due at 18:00 GMT, limited price action should be seen across the FX markets globally. Traders make the final adjustments to their positioning, with USD broadly higher in Asia. This is because the Fed is expected to drop its call for “patience” at this month meeting, which will be perceived as a concrete step toward a rate normalization. While the hawkish Fed expectations are already priced in across the money and currency markets, there is greater chance of seeing a more significant reaction on the stock indices. After last week’s depressed market, the S&P futures recovered timidly to $2,081 yesterday, Dow Jones futures gapped lower (after the unusual jump at yesterday’s trade), while Nasdaq has outperformed its US peers by advancing steadily to$ 4,384, still below the 21-dma.

WTI crude legged down to fresh low of $42.44 following the slide to fresh lows that has already started in New York yesterday. The fresh weakness in crude pushes the oil industry into deeper panic. Royal Dutch announced to disassemble ¼ of its platforms in the North Sea, while 1/3 to ¼ of BP’s UK fields are uneconomic said the CEO of the group. Fighting for its market share, the Saudi Arabia already prints deficit, while the US continues producing 9.4 million barrels per day, through a constant uptrend. The panic in oil prices keep oil producer currencies downbeat. USD/NOK extends gains to 8.3323, combined to Norway’s shrinking trade balance to 21 billion NOK from 27.1 billion a month ago. Norges Bank is expected to lower the deposit rates from 1.25% to 1.00% on March 19th meeting. The wider divergence between the Fed and the Norges Bank suggests steady advance toward 2000-2001 range of 8.50/9.50.

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