Thursday, May 7, 2015

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Market Brief
EURUSD EUR/USD is bouncing close to the strong resistance at 1.1376 (26/02/2015 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.1334 (intraday low) and 1.1207 (06/05/2015 low). Break to the upside would suggest a test of resistance at 1.1534 (03/02/2015 reaction high). In the longer term, the symmetrical triangle from 2010-2014 favors further weakness towards parity. As a result, we view the recent sideways moves as a pause in an underlying declining trend. Key supports can be found at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low) and 1.0000 (psychological support).

GBPUSD GBP/USD is showing limited short-term buying interest after break of declining trendline resistance at 1.5175. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.5262 (27/04/2015). Key support lies at 1.5100 (27/04/2015 low) and 1.5028 (24/04/2015 low). In the longer-term, the break of the strong support at 1.4814 opens the way for further medium-term weakness towards the strong support at 1.4231 (20/05/2010 low). Key resistance stands at 1.5552 (26/02/2015 high).

USDJPY USD/JPY remains weak as long as prices remain below the key resistance at 120.10/20 (declining trendline). Hourly support stands at 119.20 (29/04/2015 high and intraday low) then 118.53. Another resistance is given by the recent high at 120.50 then 120.84 (13/04/2015 high). A long-term bullish bias is favored as long as the strong support at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low) holds. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 124.14 (22/06/2007 high) is favored. A key support can be found at 118.18 (16/02/2015 low), whereas a key resistance stands at 121.85 (see also the long-term declining channel).

USDCHF USD/CHF remains under the selling pressure after breaking key support area defined by 0.9170 (30/01/2015 base) confirming an underlying downtrend. Next support can be located at 0.8986 (28/01/2015 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 0.9178 (intraday high) then 0.9413 (30/04/2015 high) and 0.9493 (27/04/2015 low). In the longer-term, the bullish momentum in USD/CHF has resumed after the decline linked to the removal of the EUR/CHF floor. A test of the strong resistance at 1.0240 is likely. As a result, the current weakness is seen as a counter-trend move. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low).
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