Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Currency Trading Signal

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Market Brief
EURUSD EUR/USD has broken the resistance at 1.1376 (26/02/2015 high) and is now bouncing back to hourly support at 1.1131 (11/05/2015 low) . Key resistance lies at 1.1066 (05/05/2015 low). In the longer term, the symmetrical triangle from 2010-2014 favors further weakness towards parity. As a result, we view the recent sideways moves as a pause in an underlying declining trend. Key supports can be found at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low) and 1.0000 (psychological support). Break to the upside would suggest a test of resistance at 1.1534 (03/02/2015 reaction high).

GBPUSD GBP/USD has broken the resistance at 1.5786 (27/11/2014 reaction high) and is now bouncing back to hourly support at 1.5557 (12/05/2015 low) which will pave the way to 1.5394 (11/05/2015 low). Key resistance lies at 1.5826 (27/11/2015 high). In the longer term, the technical structure lookslike a recovery bottom whose maximum upside potential is given by the strong resistance at 1.6189 (Fino 61% entrancement). The current upwards consolidation suggests a medium-term persistent buying interest as long as support as 1.5380 holds.

USDJPY USD/JPY remains in its range as long as prices remain below the key resistance at 121.85 and support at 115.57. The pair is still bullish as we stay above the 200-dma. Hourly support stands at 118.18 (30/04/2015 low) and hourly resistance is given by the recent high at 120.50 (05/05/2015 high) then 120.84 (13/04/2015 high). A long-term bullish bias is favored as long as the strong support at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low) holds. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 124.14 (22/06/2007 high) is favored. A key support can be found at 118.18 (16/02/2015 low), whereas a key resistance stands at 121.85 (see also the long-term declining channel).
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