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Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, reviews the main events ahead for Wednesday, emphasizing the RBA semi-annual Financial Stability Review due at 1.30 GMT.

Key Quotes
"At 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK, the RBA releases its semi-annual Financial Stability Review. This report is normally ignored by markets and again any reaction on AUD would be a surprise. But there will be plenty of commentary worth noting on Australia’s financial sector such as investor leverage in housing. In particular, there has been a lot of media discussion over whether macroprudential measures might be employed to cool the housing market. Westpac’s view is that the RBA and regulator APRA will not introduce such measures before interest rates increase."

"At 11:45am Syd/9:45am local we see China’s Sep Westpac-MNI consumer sentiment survey. Weakness in this survey in Q2 was a much better leading indicator of the recent softness in official China activity data than the PMIs. The Aug headline index was 113.3, versus as high as 121.2 in May."

"Europe’s data highlight is the Sep IFO survey of German business confidence. Consensus is 105.8 versus Aug’s 106.3 overall, with the current conditions index 110.2 and expectations 101.2."
Analysts at Rabobak explained that Geo-political developments provide further reason for caution.

Key Quotes:
"US and several Gulf Arab allies yesterday launched air missile strikes on Islamic State strongholds in Iraq".

"Following recent comments from US Secretary of State John Kerry who expects Turkey to do more in fight against IS, Turkish Prime Minister Davutoglu stated that Turkey will decided on such issue in line with its national interests. Davutoglu proposed to form a “safe zone” on the other side of Turkey’s borders amid fighting in Iraq and Syria".

"Tensions at the border with Syria escalated over the weekend when Turkish forces used tear gas and fired shots in the air to disperse hundreds of Kurds who attempted to enter into Syria and fight against Islamic State militants who targeted a Kurdish-dominated town of Kobani".

USD/TRY appreciated to 2.2483 high on Monday (the highest since March) amid growing geopolitical risk before better than anticipated China’s manufacturing PMI provided modest relief".
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