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It is going to be a huge day in Europe, with key events including the SNB policy decision, the TLTRO allotment, the Scottish vote, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.

"A huge day in Europe starts with the Swiss National Bank’s quarterly monetary policy review (5:30pm Syd/3:30pm Sing/HK). A steady hand on the benchmark 0.0% 3mth CHF LIBOR rate is a given. But with Swiss inflation holding around zero and EUR widely expected to trend lower in coming months, the SNB could have its hands full maintaining the EUR/CHF 1.20 floor. Hence there could at least be some talk of negative deposit rates in the press conference."

"The allotment of the ECB’s first targeted long term refinancing operation (TLTRO) is due at 5:15pm Sing/HK (11:15am local). The median expectation for banks’ takeup of this facility is EUR150bn. A strong takeup would please the ECB and perhaps reduce pressure for yet more easing towards year end. But it would also mean a larger supply of EUR of which some could be sold for higher yielding currencies."

"Voting in the Scottish referendum takes place from 7am to 10pm local time, meaning polls close 7am Friday Sydney time, with no useful results likely until late morning or noon Friday Sydney. Polls mostly continue to indicate a narrow win for the ‘no’ vote. Confirmation of this could see GBP/USD bounce to 1.64-1.65 but a shock ‘yes’ could see a sterling collapse to anywhere in the 1.50-1.55 region."

The US data calendar is worth watching, with the main focus housing: Aug housing starts and building permits. Starts leapt 15.7% m/m in Jul, hence consensus of -5%. Initial jobless claims are also of interest as they cover the week of the Sep employment report. The median forecast is 305k after 315k the week prior."
AUD/USD keeps making lower lows in Asia, with the USD still strengthening ahead of Tokyo in response to the FOMC outcome, with the rate presently exchanging hands at 0.8940 lows.

According to Jim Langlands, Founder at FXCharts, by heaading below 0.8960, not only the target of a head annd shoulder has been reached, but "Aud has also taken out some very important levels, these being the rising monthly trend line from 2008 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace of 0.8660/0.9505 and has potential quite bearish consequences for the Aud."

Jim notes that the next levels to watch are "at 0.8923 (12 March low), 0.8890 (3 March low) and 0.8860 (76.4% of 0.8860/0.9505)." On the topside, "if we see a rally, 0.8980 will act as the initial resistance, beyond which sellers will now line up at 0.9000", Jim adds. ver the week of the Sep employment report. The median forecast is 305k after 315k the week prior."
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