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Market Brief
Only the BoJ in the G10 with policy meeting this week FX traders will be focused on Greece headlines and latest meeting minutes from RBA, BoE and Fed. Markets will also focus on the latest ECB decision on ELA access on the 18th. Commodities remain the big story as brent rose above $60 for the first time this year, driven by the decent European economic data and news that suppliers investment spending would decrease. Oil currencies such as NOK, CAD and RUB should further benefit from higher energy costs. Gold’s recovery has falter but with the Riksbank starting mini QE and Japanese weak GDP indicating further easing will be required giving Gold further upside. Also, data from IMM indicates that widespread Gold long liquidations will lossen upside. The cease-fire agreement between Russia and the Ukraine kicked-off creating tentative optimism (despite areas of enduring fighting) also supporting the positive sentiment. Potentially providing momentum for further upside in European stocks. In addition, Fridays pullback in European rates suggests that the concern around Greece and optimism around German economic data could support further risk appetite. With the US market on holiday for Presidents day, liquidity will be thin and focused on news souring the Greek bailout discussion.
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