Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Currency Trading Signal

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Market Brief
Despite Fed Chair Yellens slightly dovish testimony FX markets were broadly unchanged. EURUSD gained slightly to 1.1350 while GBPUSD rose to 1.5475. AUDUSD climbed to 0.7877 on the back of stronger China PMI manufacturing. NZDUSD firmed around 0.7530. Asia equity markets were broadly higher. The Nikkei rose 0.10%, Kospi up 0.8% while Shanghai was flat on return for the long holiday. US treasury yields were stable as the 10 yr lingered around 1.988%.

Fed Chair Yellens highly anticipated testimony indicated that policy decision would be data dependent and considered on a meeting by meeting basis. She did make is clear that no rate hike would be imminent, but the ground work was ready for tightening later this year. She told the Senate banking committee that the economic recovery was solid being led by the labor markets. In addition she hinted that wages should start to increase. In regards to inflation Yellen stressed it was too low for the feds liking however, weakness was due to softer oil prices and medium term inflation should rise to 2%. USD was only slightly weaker on the comments since there was really no new information above the recent FOMC meeting minutes.

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