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Market Brief

Risk appetite returned marginally in the Asian session but profit-taking looks to be the core driver rathern then positive news. The Nikkei rose 1.98% while the Hang Seng rallied 0.38%. The rest of Asia shares gained with the exception being the Shanghai composite which fell -0.96%. European and US equities futures are pointing to a flat to slightly lower open. In the forex markets, the USD continues to be on the back footing, however, the EUR was unable to maintain its earlier gains. Yesterday, EURUSD rallied to 1. 1536 before trending lower to 1.1460 range area. Initially USDJPY climbed to 118.01 before sellers pushed the pair back down to 117.48. AUDUSD was back to 0.7847, able to reverse all of the RBAs driven loses. AUDUSD traders will be watching key resistance at 0.7860. Asian FX complex rallied back against the USD, with KRW, TWD, INR and CNY all higher. Commodity prices further improved led by big moves in oil. However, with no structural change in fundamental backdrop, the correction looks be driven by profit-taking. Therefore any recovery should be limited in scope.

The struggle around the Greek governments new rescue plan continues. Overnight the FT reported that the ECB will not allow Greece to issue new debt at the end of this month. Potentially leaving Greece well short of cash as the international bailout expires at the end of the month. Yanis Varoufakis, Greek finance minister, had proposed to European officials (still will not negotiate with the “troika”) that Athens would find short term funding through at €10bn treasury bill sale. This “bridge” financing would cover the next three months while a new bailout plan is hammered out. However, according to sources, the ECB which controls terms of any national debt issuance, will not approve an increase in the current cap. Currently, EURUSD has reverse short-term bearish trend taking out critical high at 1.1425 and 1.1525 23.6% Fibo retracement from Oct 2014. This suggests a further extension of current correct phase to 1.1775.

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