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Market Brief
EUR remains under pressure as Greek reform negotiations look to have stalled, and despite decent PMI manufacturing reads across Europe. The most recent news flow from Brussels and Athens indicate no agreement will be reached before Easter. This does not look well for a debt repayments starting April 9th to the IMF. Worryingly, ECB policy makers will examine their current Emergence Liquidity Assistance (ELA) strategy to Greece. Greek banks have seen massive deposit outflows for a sixth month and depends on lending from the Greek central bank to say liquid. Recently the ECB raised the amount the Greek central banks can lend to domestic banks to €71.1 billion. The funds from the ELA is keeping Greece afloat (after the ECB suspended banks use of junk rated Greek bonds as collateral). The ECBs governing council will be holding their weekly review and will study if further lending to risky Greek banks (which are channeling funds to the Greek government) is advisable. The ECB balance sheet is now ramping up (€2246bn) with heavy TLTRO loans to banks and ECB buying of government bonds. We remain significantly negative on the Euro and EURUSD. Yesterday’s EURUSD close below the 21d MA at 1.0780 indicates a bearish move towards 1.0458. EURGBP, safely below 65d MA indicates sustained bearish momentum, targeting 0.7000 cyclical lows.  Elsewhere, it seems ECB President semi-covert strategy of debasing the EUR to stimulate growth looks to be having a positive effect. Euro area PMI manufacturing came in at 52.2 verse 51.9 exp/prior while German PMI manufacturing rose slightly to 52.8 verse 52.4 exp/prior. Clearly Europe is exhibiting signs of “green shots”. The good economic numbers will support European stocks after a strong March. In the US session, the heavy US data starts today. ADP is anticipated to show that 225k jobs were added in March following February 212k read.

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