Monday, April 20, 2015

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Forex News and Technical Analysis

EURUSD EUR/USD continues to bounce. However, prices seem to fade near the resistance implied by the 61.8% retracement (1.0839). Another hourly resistance stands at 1.0888. Hourly supports are given by 1.0734 (17/04/2015 low) and the rising trendline (around 1.0682). In the longer term, the symmetrical triangle favours further weakness towards parity. As a result, any strength is likely to be temporary in nature. A strong resistance stands at 1.1114 (05/03/2015 low). Key supports can be found at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low) and 1.0000 (psychological support).

GBPUSD GBP/USD made a large upper shadow near the key resistance at 1.4994 on Friday, suggesting a potential weakening buying interest. Hourly supports can be found at 1.4917 (17/04/2015 low) and 1.4813 (16/04/2015 low). Another key resistance stands at 1.5166. In the longer-term, the break of the strong support at 1.4814 opens the way for further medium-term weakness towards the strong support at 1.4231 (20/05/2010 low). A break of the key resistance at 1.5166 (18/03/2015 high) is needed to invalidate this scenario. Another key resistance stands at 1.5552 (26/02/2015 high).

USDJPY USD/JPY remains weak as can be seen by the breach of the support at 118.72. Hourly resistances can be found at 119.27 (17/04/2015 high) and 119.75. A key support stands at 118.18. A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the strong support at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low) holds. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 124.14 (22/06/2007 high) is favoured. A key support can be found at 118.18 (16/02/2015 low), whereas a key resistance stands at 121.85 (see also the long-term declining channel).

USDCHF USD/CHF is challenging the key support area between 0.9491 and 0.9450 (see also the 38.2% retracement). Hourly resistances can be found at 0.9585 (17/04/2015 high) and 0.9712 (16/04/2015 high). In the longer-term, the bullish momentum in USD/CHF has resumed after the decline linked to the removal of the EUR/CHF floor. A test of the strong resistance at 1.0240 is likely. As a result, the current weakness is seen as a countertrend move. Key supports can be found at 0.9450 (26/02/2015 low, see also the 200-day moving average) and 0.9170 (30/01/2015 low).

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