Tuesday, April 28, 2015

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EURUSD EUR/USD is in a consolidation phase since the second half of March. The break of the hourly resistance at 1.0849 (17/04/2015 high) indicates an improving short-term technical configuration. The hourly resistance at 1.0927 (27/04/2015 high) is challenged. A key resistance stands at 1.1043. Hourly supports can be found at 1.0785 (24/04/2015 low) and 1.0660 (21/04/2015 low). In the longer term, the symmetrical triangle from 2010-2014 favours further weakness towards parity. As a result, we view the recent sideways moves as a pause in an underlying declining trend. A strong resistance stands at 1.1114 (05/03/2015 low). Key supports can be found at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low) and 1.0000 (psychological support).

GBPUSD GBP/USD has broken to the upside above key resistance area between 1.5137 (09/03/2015 high) and 1.5166 (see also the declining trendline). Hourly supports can be found at 1.5166 (18/03/2015) and 1.5028 (24/04/2015 low). In the longer-term, the break of the strong support at 1.4814 opens the way for further medium-term weakness towards the strong support at 1.4231 (20/05/2010 low). A decisive break of the key resistance at 1.5166 (18/03/2015 high) is needed to invalidate this scenario. Another key resistance stands at 1.5552 (26/02/2015 high).

USDJPY USD/JPY continues to consolidate near its key support at 118.18. A break of the resistance at 120.12 (intraday high, see also the declining trendline) is needed to suggest exhaustion in the selling pressures. An hourly support stands at 118.53. Another resistance can be found at 120.84 (13/04/2015 high). A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the strong support at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low) holds. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 124.14 (22/06/2007 high) is favoured. A key support can be found at 118.18 (16/02/2015 low), whereas a key resistance stands at 121.85 (see also the long-term declining channel).

USDCHF USD/CHF continues to challenge the key support area between 0.9491 and 0.9450 (see also the 38.2% retracement). Hourly resistances can be found at 0.9628 (intraday low) and 0.9712. In the longer-term, the bullish momentum in USD/CHF has resumed after the decline linked to the removal of the EUR/CHF floor. A test of the strong resistance at 1.0240 is likely. As a result, the current weakness is seen as a countertrend move. Key supports can be found at 0.9450 (26/02/2015 low, see also the 200-day moving average) and 0.9170 (30/01/2015 low).
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