Monday, November 17, 2014

Currency Trading Signal

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Market Brief
The week starts with dangerous news out of Japan. Japanese economy unexpectedly entered recession amid 3Q preliminary GDP reading showed 1.7% q/q annualized contraction (vs. 2.2% exp. & previous -7.1% revised all the way down to -7.3%). The impact of April’s excise tax hike has been heavier than anticipated on the Abenomics. The PM Abe is shortly expected to delay hike in excise taxand announce snap elections in Dec. USD/JPY and JPY crosses took a dive in national capital, Nikkei stocks started the week -2.96% lower. USD/JPY hit the contemporary high of 117.05 before tumbling to 115.46 post-GDP. Once the negative GDP digestible, the anticipation for additional growth validatory live ought to continue giving support to JPY-crosses. choice bidsarea unit seen at 115+. additional support is given at 113.86/112.45 (Nov 3th low / Nov tenth low). On the same pattern, EUR/JPY advanced to contemporary year of 146.53 before correction.

Released on Friday, the U.S.A. retail sales information stunned on the face in October unharness. The headline retail sales grew 0.3% on month (vs 0.2% exp. & -0.3% last), retail sales ex-autos and gas surged 0.6% m/m (vs. 0.4% exp. & -0.1% last). EUR/USD shortly tested 1.2400 bids and rebounded to shut the week at 1.2525, causation MACD within the inexperienced zone. The short-run technicals currently hint at deeper face correction. Resistance is seen at one.2688/97 (50-dma / daily Ichimoku base), then 1.2744 (Fibonacci 23.6% on May-November drop). EUR/GBP tests 0.80 resistance. With strengthening optimistic momentum, the main focus shifts to 200-dma (0.80573).
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