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Market Brief
The JPY crosses rallied to fresh highs as Japanese trade balance deficit narrowed from 958.3 billion to 710.0 billion yen in October (vs. -1,027bn exp.). USD/JPY tests 119.00 as European traders jump in. The bullish trend gains pace, large vanilla calls from 117.50/75 to 118.00 should give support today. Key resistance is placed at 120.00. EUR/JPY surged to 149.14. Deep overbought conditions (RSI at 81%) should lead to profit taking into 150.00/152.00 zone.
The heavy EUR/JPY demand keeps the EUR/USD well bid. Trend and momentum indicators are marginally positive. Offers stand at 1.2577/78 (Nov 4th & 17th highs). More resistance is eyed at 1.2722/44 (daily Ichimoku cloud base / Fib 23.6% on May—Nov sell-off). EUR/GBP holds ground at 0.80, tests 200-dma (0.80538). Strong resistance is seen at this level as it has been more than a year the EUR/GBP has not traded above its 200-dma. EUR/CHF trades at 1.2010/15 despite new election polls on Gold referendum showed significant shift to “no” camp.
The Cable advanced to 1.5721 amid the BoE minutes were less dovish than expected. The UK retail sales (at 09:30 GMT) should determine whether the GBP/USD will push for deeper short-term correction clearing 1.5700-1.5800 option barriers or the 1.55 target will remain up to date.
Released yesterday, Fed minutes pushed USD higher against all G10 and EM currencies. Minutes mentioned that the weak economic outlook in Euro-zone, China and Japan should have little impact on the US recovery. Some members were concerned that the inflation may remain below the target for some more time. The US October CPI is due today (13:30 GMT), the CPI is expected to decelerate by 0.1% on month. Any positive surprise should push for further USD gains. The US 10-year yields remain below 2.40%, the DXY index resists pre-88.000.
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