Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Forex forecast

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Market Brief
The German GDP grew 0.1% q/q in 3Q, 1.2% y/y. Markets gave very little reaction to smart German knowledge as a lot of necessary considerations occupy the headlines within the Euro-zone, the QE being one in all them. EUR/USD opened the week right down to 1.2360 following “broader quality purchases” hinted by Draghi on November 21st speech. Trend and momentum indicators weaken. The MACD can step in red zone for a daily shut below 1.2343. good vanilla expiries ought to cap the side pre-1.25. EUR/GBP listed in tight vary of 0.79175/276 long (daily Ichi cloud).

GBP/USD trades range-bound. The formation of optimistic engulfing (conviction 5/9) hints at higher short outlook, a daily shut higher than 1.5692 (MACD pivot) ought to push for side correction. Last week’s double high 1.5736/37 is nevertheless to be broken to substantiate a optimistic reversal. BoE Governor Carney’s speech before the lawmakers ought to offer recent direction to GBP-complex nowadays. revived political orientation ought to halt the development in technicals and reverse short tendency toward 1.55 target.

The China 7-day repo fixing fell 20 bps to 3.3%, USD/CNY extended gains to 6.1405. With optimistic momentum developing, we have a tendency to see area for more side. Next line of resistance is seen at 6.1500/33 (optionality / Fib five hundredth on January-April rally), then 6.1774/6.1803 (200-dma / Fib 61.8%).

USD/JPY and JPY crosses were sluggish in Tokyo, the pacifistic BoJ minutes were offset by political uncertainties and also the want for business enterprise reforms. USD/JPY consolidates gains at year high levels, nevertheless the restricted appetency before Dec snap elections ought to keep the resistance solid pre-120. EUR/JPY bulls lose ground.
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