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Market Brief

The USD squeeze has been the main highlight of the overnight FX trading. The US 10-year government yields tumbled down to 2.38%. The high-beta commodity currencies gained the most, in an effort to pare last weeks’ significant losses. NZD, AUD and CAD outperformed their G10 peers, EM currencies recovered before Friday’s NFPs.

USD/CAD sold-off from 1.1223 (highest since March 24th) in Toronto yesterday, the positive momentum decelerated.  Bids are seen at 1.1000/36 (optionality / 21-dma). The Canadian trade data and the NFPs will be important to define whether the downside move is a short-term correction or bearish reversal pre-weekend. The critical support stands at 1.1279 (year high).

In New Zealand, the NZD/USD gained more than 1.0% despite soft news out of the commodity markets. According to ANZ Bank, the commodity prices fell 1.3% on month to September (-9.4% on year); skim milk powder prices tumbled 14% on month, butter prices lost 8%. What kept AUD and NZD in demand has been the easing property restrictions in China. AUD/USD rebounded from yesterday’s 0.8663 low (a stone’s throw higher than 0.8660 year-low). The Antipodeans remain highly sensitive to US yields. A pick-up in UST yields should quickly reverse direction.

USD/JPY and JPY crosses traded mixed in Tokyo. USD/JPY sold-off to 108.55 on broad USD weakness. The MACD (12, 26) turned negative after decent sell-off from six-year high 110.09. Deeper downside correction is not ruled out pre-NFPs. First line of support is eyed at 107.91 (21-dma), then 106.82 (daily Ichimoku base line). EUR/JPY is offered below its 50-dma (137.72), the EUR risk is high pre-ECB.

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