Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Currency Trading Signal
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Market Brief
Japan’s GPIF – the world’s largest pension fund -
allocated less than 50% of its assets in domestic bonds for the first time at
end of September, according to a Reuters report today. USD/JPY and JPY crosses
traded mixed in Tokyo, Nikkei stocks gained 1.46%. Yesterday’s close above
108.00 (MACD pivot) turned the bias on the upside. Option bids are noted at
108.00/25 for today’s expiry. The ascending Ichimoku cloud cover
(105.27/107.15) will likely give support before the FOMC verdict later today.
The USD/JPY direction will be contingent on global USD move later today.
EUR/JPY tests 50/100-dma (137.57/66) on the upside. We see a formation of
bearish engulfing line (on Oct 27th) indicating a future bearish trend.
Resistance should come into play at daily Ichimoku cover (138.48/139.12).
Released in New York yesterday, the US durable goods
orders contracted 1.3% on month to September, reviving dovish Fed speculations.
The significant improvement in consumer confidence in October (from 86.0 to
94.5 vs 87 exp.) tempered weakness in USD. The FOMC gives policy verdict today
and is expected to announce the end of the QE3 program. This implies cutting
the last 15 billion dollar worth Treasury and MBS purchases, this amount is
above the regular 10 billion dollar decrease since the tapering started.
Anything less than 15 billion dollar should give additional boost to Fed-doves.
The accompanying statement should remain cautious as the Fed will certainly
prefer to keep its maneuver margin as wide as possible. The greenback is weaker
against its G10 peers, the US 10-year yields remain below 2.30% resistance on
week.
EUR/USD bull momentum develops via higher-lows pattern
over the 4 past sessions. The short-term bias is positive. Broad USD weakness
is believed to play major role in the short-term bull pattern. Resistance is
seen at 1.2853/55/86 (Fib 23.6% on May-Oct sell-off / 50-dma / Oct 15th high).
Option bets are mixed with slight positive bias at 1.2700/1.2880 pre-FOMC,
barriers are touted at 1.29+. EUR/GBP tests 0.79 offers. A daily close below
0.7912 will keep the bias on the downside.
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