Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Currency Trading Signal
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Market Brief
Japanese retail sales unexpectedly accelerated to 2.7%
in month to September, significantly beating 0.9% expectations (vs. 1.9% a
month ago); large retailers’ sales slowed to 0.5% however, from 1.6% a month
ago. The BoJ Governor Kuroda said that the inflation is half-way to goal as
sales tax effect fades, adding that the BoJ will not hesitate to ease more if
needed. USD/JPY and JPY crosses traded mixed in Tokyo, Nikkei stocks retreated
0.38%. USD/JPY couldn’t make it higher than 108.00, the bull momentum did not
pick-up amid yesterday’s close at 107.92. We see further test of 108.00-offers
if breached should signal a short-term bullish reversal for a close above
108.00 (MACD pivot). EUR/JPY sees resistance at daily Ichimoku base line
(137.18). Given the weak EUR enthusiasm, offers at 50/100 dma (137.56/66)
should cap the bull attempts.
EUR/USD sees support at its 21-dma (1.2692) since the
ECB announced the purchase of 1.704 billion euros of covered bonds last week;
this is twice as much as the market estimates (appr. 800 million euros).
Starting from yesterday, the ECB will announce the amount of its purchases on
weekly basis. According to ECB Vice President Constancio, there is a pool of
600 billion covered bonds and 400 billion ABS adequate for the ECB purchases.
This picture does not hint at a potential QE and therefore gives support to
EUR/USD pre-FOMC (Wed). Trend and momentum indicators are positive, the
short-term resistance is eyed at 1.2853/1.2886 (area including Fib 23.6% on
May-Oct sell-off, 50-dma & Oct 15th high). The support is placed at
1.2571/1.2614.
Among the G10 peers, NOK and CAD clearly suffer from
the persistent slide in oil prices. The WTI hit a fresh low of $79.44 in New
York yesterday. The bias in oil markets remains negative, suggesting the
strengthening of the bull market in USD/CAD and USD/NOK. The recent macro developments
should temper the EUR/CAD bears. The MACD (12, 26) is now flat. A daily close
above 1.4265 should keep the bias on the upside.
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