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Market Brief
The Japanese producer prices retreated by 0.1% on month to September as expected, pulling the yearly PPI down to 3.5% (from 3.9 y/y previously).The M2 and M3 money stocks increased 3.0% and 2.5% respectively (stable pace). USD/JPY and JPY crosses were better bid in Tokyo, despite 2.38% drop in Nikkei stocks. USD/JPY rebounded from 106.77 at session open, remained capped at 107.30. Option barriers at 107.75/108.00 likely to limit the upside as US yields weaken (US 10-year yields hit 2.2361%). On the downside, the key support zone remains 106.64/81 (Fib 61.8% on Jul-Oct rally / Sep 16th low). EUR/JPY rebounded from the fresh 2014 low of 135.55 yesterday. Recovery in EUR helped keeping downside safe. Resistance is seen at 137.02/51 (daily Ichimoku cloud cover).
The broad based USD weakness pushed EUR/USD above its 21-dma (1.2736). Trend and momentum indicators are positive. Option related offers are placed at 1.2795/1.2825 zone for today expiry. France, Spain and Italy publish September final CPI today; soft readings will likely lead to top selling in EUR/USD. German and Euro-zone aggregate CPI are due on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
GBP/USD consolidates between 1.5944-1.6239 (2014 low / Fib 23.6% on Jul-Oct sell-off). Trend and momentum indicators are flat; a daily close below 1.6032 (MACD pivot) should keep the bias on the downside. The UK publishes September inflation report today (08:30 GMT). Markets expect the CPI y/y at 1.4% (vs. 1.5% a month ago). The soft inflation dynamics clearly give more time to BoE before the policy normalization as the BoE’s inflation target band stands at a distant 2-3%. A negative surprise should weigh on the Cable, placing 1.5944 at risk, while faster inflation should give some support above year lows as USD strength curbs.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD were better bid on growth supportive news from China. PBoC cut its 14-day repurchase agreement rate by 0.10 percentage point to lower borrowing costs. USD/CNY broke the triple dip support & Fib support (6.1264) and fell to 6.1229 for the first time since March 7th. We see the extension of weakness towards 6.10s as 21-dma resistance holds. Large NZD/USD vanilla call is waiting to be activated at 0.7940 (above 21-dma, 0.7938).

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