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Market Brief

The foreign interest in Japanese stocks turned negative in week to October, the total demand for Japanese bonds increased; 600 billion yen decrease in foreign demand has been well compensated by 796 billion yen demand from Japanese investors. USD/JPY and JPY crosses were mostly offered in Tokyo as Nikkei stocks closed the day 1.40% lower. USD/JPY remained capped at 106.50. Trend and momentum indicators are comfortably negative, suggesting deeper downside correction. Resistance is eyed at 106.64/107.00 (Fib 61.8% on Jul-Oct rally /optionality). Large vanilla calls at 104.50/105.50 should anchor the downside pre-weekend. From next week, option related offers trail down to 105.00, with large expiry at 106.25 due on Monday. EUR/JPY spiked down to 134.14, lowest since Nov 20th, 2013.

EUR/USD hit the 1.2845 resistance yesterday, yet failed to extend gains as top seller strategies prevailed after data confirmed the continuing softness in Euro-zone CPI. The sell-off in peripheral bonds continue with Greek 10-year yields at 9%. The strong positive correlation between core/periphery spread and EUR/USD seems limiting the downside in EUR/USD. Option bids for today expiry are placed at 1.2750/1.2850/1.2900+, offers abound below 1.2740.

AUD/USD finds some support above 0.8643/60 (year low levels) as short-term technicals continue pointing at correction. NZD/USD continues testing 0.8000-offers. Large call expiries at 0.7900/40 should give some upside support before the closing bell.

USD/CAD consolidates gains at 5-year highs as oil prices slightly recover after WTI active contracts traded below $80 yesterday, first time since mid-2012. Canada publishes CPI data today (12:30 GMT). Markets expect slight cool-off in inflation (from 2.1% to 2.0% y/y). The BoC needs softer inflation to keep its policy accommodative. Especially at times the international oil prices threaten country’s largest export business. Therefore, a strong read should lead to some appreciation in CAD-complex. The key short-term support is seen at 1.1200/05 (optionality, MACD pivot and Fib 23.6% on Jul-Oct rise). A close below this level should signal a short-term bearish reversal.

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