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Market Brief

The USD opened weak across the board amid dovish Fed comments over the weekend. Fed’s Evans highlighted the slack in the labor market (despite 5.9% unemployment) and said more QE is needed if the growth and inflation dive. Evans said the US needs more inflation, while stronger USD weighs on price dynamics. Tarullo voiced his concerns about downside risks to the global economy, adding that the Fed should consider IMF call before taking bold action. USD sold-off against the majority of G10 and EM. The Asian equities opened in red, while the US 10-year yields fell to fresh year low of 2.28%.

In China, the September trade figures were mixed. The trade surplus narrowed from 49.84 to 30.94 billion dollars, but exports surged  15.3% on year to September (vs. 12.0% exp. & 9.4% last), imports grew 7.0% y/y (vs. -2.0% exp. & 2.4% last). USD/CNY tests 6.1256/64 on the downside (Sep 26th low / Fibonacci 38.2% on Jan-May rise), triple dip support since Sep 11th if broken should open the way to 6.10s psychological support. AUD/USD traded down to 0.8652 before the China trade data and USD weakness helped recovery to 0.8750. Option barriers are tipped at 0.8800/50.

Higher risk aversion and lower US yields pulled USD/JPY to 107.06 early in Asia. Stronger bearish momentum suggests deeper downside correction. The closest support is seen at 106.64/81 (Fib 61.8% on Jul-Oct rally / Sep 16th low), option related bids trail above 105.00. EUR/JPY extended losses to 135.55 – a fresh 2014 low. Option barriers for today expiry are placed at 136.75. 

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