Currency Trading Signal

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Market Brief
Forex strategies have shifted towards buying USD on the back of the Federal Reserve announcement to end QE. The Fed announcement ended its current round of QE by cutting purchases of Treasuries and MBS $15 billion to $0. In addition, the FOMC announcement linked any increase in the fed funds rate to economic data, giving the central bank a bit more flexibility in policy setting. In a slight shift in tone, the statement sounded more hawks than expected. The Fed upgraded its outlook on the job market noting that “labour market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate”. While policymakers repeated that rates should remain unchanged "for a considerable time"  there is an increased probability that the first fed fund rate hike could come prior to mid-2015, contingent on the development of economic data. The final vote to end QE was 9-1, with Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota dissenting arguing that QE3 should have been continued. The post –Fed reaction was heavy buying USD verse most G10 and EM currencies, supported by higher yields. USDJPY was well  bid rallying to 109.26 with little pause or pullbacks along the way. EURUSD fell sharply for most of the Asian session dropping to 1.2571. AUD and NZD were both sold heavily verse the USD on monetary policy divergence falling to 0.8757 and 0.7780 respectively. AUDNZD rallied to 1.1261 preceding a more dovish than anticipated policy statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Long only commodity trading systems were hit hard as gold and silver fell sharply to 1201.53 and 16.80 respectively, after a false recovery. Asia equity markets were able to shrug off the end of the US QE program as the Nikkei rallied 0.67%, Shanghai composite rose 0.79% yet the Hang Seng fell 0.55%. US S&P 500 futures are currently trading in the green.

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