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Market Brief

Risk Sentiment in the Asian session was mixed as investors contemplated what response Beijing would have to the protests in Hong Kong. USD was slightly on offer as higher yielding currencies regained some losses. EURUSD bounced around the 1.2674 with no clear driver. AUDUSD fell sharply at the start of the session to 0.8695 before quickly recovering to 0.8764 for no apparent reason. Protest in Hong Kong sent the Hang Seng down -1.28%, yet Shanghai was able to gain 0.28%. Outside of China most of Asia were slightly lower, led by the Nikkei which dropped -0.84%.

Japan’s industrial production was weak falling 1.5%m/m in August, lower then market-expected rise of 0.2%. Annual output dropped 2.9% following a decline of 0.7% the previous month. However, retail sales jumped to the upside, up 1.9%m/m verse 0.5 expected and after a weak fall of 0.5%m/m July. While the protest in Hong Kong are grabbing the spot light hurting general risk sentiment China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 50.2 in September, from earlier estimate of 50.5. In New Zealand, ANZ business confidence fell to its lowest level since Summer 2012 in September to 13.4 from 24.4 in August. the decline was attributed to election uncertainty which weighed on sentiment. However, ANZ activity outlook, which has a higher predictive power to growth remained solid at at 37.

On the docket today, we have UK Q2 GDP growth with consensus of 0.8% q/q. We suspect the risk is to the upside. Now that the Scottish referendum is safely passed the focus is back on fundamentals. Give the solid data reads there is still a significant probability that the BoE will start tightening before the new year. While we continue to see a strong risk that the BOE might start tightening before the end of the year.

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